Bush Takes Responsibility, Nation Faints

I think it's a first... Bush has actually spoken the words (undoubtedly having had to be cajoled into doing so by his "handlers"), saying "I take responsibility," for his administration's failures in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. He's really on a roll now, trying to scramble for anything he can grab in the specter of plummeting approval ratings. It's almost amusing to behold, but I really wish it hadn't come to this. As personally gratifying as it is to see Bush fulfill his destiny as a complete presidential failure, the reality is that his incompetence is costing this country dearly, so I'd rather see him succeed than not. Unfortunately, I just don't think that's in the cards.

I read an interesting article the other day expressing a desire for our gas prices to stay where they are and even steadily climb over the next few years. It actually made a pretty valid point, which is this: sustained high gas prices are really the only thing that's going to wean this country off its well-nigh unslakable thirst for oil, thus decreasing our level of dependence on foreign oil, much of it from countries with whom the U.S. has tenuous, if not outright antagonistic, relations.

Let's play this out in a little scenario. Gas prices hover around the $2.80-3.00 mark for the next year or so, then start climbing. Perhaps the government even imposes a tax... say, 20¢ a gallon. God knows we'll need something to pay down the astronomical deficit Bush is going to leave this country holding. Meanwhile, the government is also simultaneously holding car makers to an ever-increasing standard of fuel economy. By 2010, the average price for a gallon of gas is running about $5.25. A few things will happen:

• Offensively, ridiculously, needlessly large SUVs will be about as prevalent as the black-footed ferret. Smaller SUVs will remain, and their fuel efficiency will be in the 25-30 mpg range, perhaps higher.
• The street value for a 2004 Ford Excursion will be about $355.00.
• There will be a nationwide renaissance in mass transit.
• Suburban sprawl, and the newly-hatched "exurbs," will slow, or stop their rampant expansion. Who will want to drive 130 miles a day roundtrip to work if gas is over $5 a gallon?
• More work-from-home opportunities.
• Demand for fossil fuels will drop... not precipitously, mind you, but the reason consumption isn't so insane in European countries is because those governments tax the hell out of gasoline. $6 a gallon will curb almost anyone's desire to do a ton of driving, won't it?
• As demand for oil drops, and as federal standards for fuel efficiency increase, auto manufacturers will continue to develop and exploit existing technology and develop new technology, both from the gentle coercion of lawmakers, and from the driving force of consumer demand.

So if all of these admittedly good things can come from high-priced gasoline, why were we paying less than a dollar per gallon just a few short years ago? For some reason, Americans (and I'm not excluded from this assessment) seem to think it's our constitutional right to have cheap oil. I have a small to midsize SUV which gets a whopping 16 mpg in city driving, so I'm as distraught by the prospect of $60 fillups as anyone. However, that vehicle sits in my garage undriven about 90% of the time. It's used only when the roads are snowpacked or I specifically need to haul something that won't fit into my little 2-seater sports car, which gets a much more palatable 29-30 mpg. Again, although it hurts me and many others in the short term, the continuing message I see is that expensive gasoline is ultimately good for the country.

Don't get me wrong... this isn't something that will happen in a year, or even in a decade. The oil-thirsty infrastructure in this country has been built over many decades, and it current estimates are that even if a flood of 40 mpg hybrid cars were snapped up by consumers, it will take about 15 years to effectively "turn over" the inventory that's on the roads today. So the shift will be very, very gradual. The reality is, this isn't something we're doing for ourselves; it's a move we need to make for the future generations of Americans. If a domestic hurricane can create such havoc on our oil supply, imagine the effect if a couple of OPEC nations, emboldened by the exponentially increasing Chinese demand for oil, decide to effectively "cut off" their supply to the U.S. Now is the time to start taking those first steps to reduce -- not eliminate, because that's not really possible -- our overwhelming dependence on foreign oil. Katrina may have exposed this need far more effectively than any politician or statistician could have ever done.